Pool Domination

Words can't describe how much I love this video. Every guy watching this is thinking, "oh man, I wish that I had done that first" and all the girls are wondering why we're so fascinated with this kind of thing. Posting a video set to punk music is awesome. It just is. The one they do at about 1:21 is so sweet.

Stimulus: Too Much, Too Late

This comes way of Carpe Diem from a post earlier this week, which received this piece from Bruce Bartlett over at Forbes. An excerpt:

The problem is that Obama was always much too optimistic about how quickly stimulus spending could have an effect. As I warned in a January column, it takes far more time for it to impact the economy than most people think. Moreover, not all government spending is necessarily stimulative, and the parts of the stimulus package that provide real stimulus are among the slowest to come online.

According to CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf, by the end of fiscal year 2009, which ends on Sept. 30, about a third of the least stimulative spending will have been spent vs. only 11% of the highly stimulative spending. Even at the end of fiscal year 2010, we will have spent only 47% of the highly stimulative spending. By the end of fiscal year 2011, more than a quarter of the stimulative spending will still remain unspent.

Some years ago, I did a study of every anti-recession program in the postwar era. I found that they invariably impacted on the economy too late to really help. There were many reasons for this. First, economists were slow to see a recession coming and often didn't see one at all until we were already well into it.

Then it took time to convince policymakers to do something and get legislation enacted. By the time a countercyclical program was signed into law, the recession was always over. Consequently, the stimulus stimulated when the economy was already on the upswing. The result was that these programs stimulated inflation more than they stimulated jobs and growth.

Many years ago John Maynard Keynes warned against using public works for stimulus for precisely this reason--they are too hard to reverse once the need for them has passed. With many economists already warning about inflation coming back in the near future, the ultimate legacy of the stimulus bill may be to make it harder to tighten fiscal policy when it will be needed.

The author further points out that no stimulus plan enacted since WWII has ever been successful because of the lags associated with recognizing the economic downturn, the time it takes to draft the legislation, and how long the package takes to go into effect. What ends up happening is that if the stimulus does have a positive impact, it only adds to an economy that has already corrected itself. If government had refrained from trying to influence the naturally occurring market forces in the first place, then we would still experience the upturn in the economy minus the huge debt we are accumulating from the stimulus.

Larry Kudlow notes:

Incidentally, the federal budget deficit update for June was horrible. Year to date the deficit broke past $1 trillion. Now, June is always a surplus month. But this year it’s a deficit month.

We are cruising toward a $2 trillion budget deficit for fiscal year 2009. Federal spending is up 23 percent against the year-ago level. Recessionary revenues are plunging; they are down 16 percent. Personal tax receipts are off 22 percent and, get this, corporate taxes are off an astounding 57 percent.

Government, just get out of the way.

Lone Survivor

I just finished up reading the book Lone Survivor by Marcus Luttrell, which is his account of Operation Redwing, and what turned out to be the largest loss of special forces life in one mission. My brother usually gives me a book for birthdays or Christmas, and I never seem to get around to reading them until months or even years later, but the books he gives me always turn out to be really great. He gave me The Godfather twice (unknowingly) and that turned out to be one of my favorite books ever. The first time he gave that to me was at least four years ago and I didn't read it until last summer.

When I first saw this book, I put it in the stack of other books that I would eventually get around to down the road. Being that I've been so successfully avoiding my thesis work, and living at the house where I have all my books stored, I pulled this one out and thought I should start working on it. I finished it in about three days.

There are a lot of direct quotes and stories that I'd like to pull out from the book, but this interview with Marcus Luttrell gives a good synopsis of the story. I'll save the other excerpts for another day. Whenever I read these military stories I always think about how I should enlist. It would be a great way to take care of my loans, right? We'll see. Anyway, check out the interview if you're interested in learning more about the book.

Government Intervention=Bad

Here are a couple of posts that I thought were interesting. This one comes from Larry Kudlow, and this one is actually a report from the US House of Representatives and how the role of government in creating more affordable housing spurred the global financial crisis.

First, some excerpts from Kudlow:

There’s no question that current government policies for taxes, spending, and regulation are causing the U.S. to lose competitiveness in the global race for capital, prosperity, and growth.

Of course, China has been moving in the direction of free-market capitalism for years. To some extent, this shows the positive benefits of America’s free-trade policies and its open-mindedness in helping nurture not only China growth, but also middle-class prosperity worldwide.

But what’s particularly galling about Obamanomics is that we may well be losing our competitive edge with Europe. While Europe is ever so slightly moving toward Reagan and Thatcher, the U.S. is shifting toward an overtaxed and overregulated model that smacks of François Mitterrand. That’s something no one should want to tolerate.

Heavy government controls at home, along with an income-leveling social policy couched in economic-recovery terms, is no way to run a railroad. At the simple stroke of a computer key, world investment flows to its most hospitable destination. That includes a reliable currency. But in President Bush’s last year and President Obama’s first, the U.S. has become a less-hospitable destination for global capital. That should worry everybody.

And then from the HOR report:

The housing bubble that burst in 2007 and led to a financial crisis can be traced back tofederal government intervention in the U.S. housing market intended to help provide homeownership opportunities for more Americans. This intervention began with two government-backed corporations, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which privatized their profits but socialized their risks, creating powerful incentives for them to act recklessly and exposing taxpayers to tremendous losses. Government intervention also created “affordable” but dangerous lending policies which encouraged lower down payments, looser underwriting standards and higher leverage. Finally, government intervention created a nexus of vested interests – politicians, lenders and lobbyists – who
profited from the “affordable” housing market and acted to kill reforms. In the short run, thisgovernment intervention was successful in its stated goal – raising the national homeownership rate. However, the ultimate effect was to create a mortgage tsunami that wrought devastation on the American people and economy. While government intervention was not the sole cause of the financial crisis, its role was significant and hasreceived too little attention.

Risky mortgage lending, particularly loans with very low down payments, contributed directly to the rise of a housing bubble. Had this risky lending been contained within thelow-income segment of the market targeted by politicians advocating more “innovation” in “affordable lending,” the damage to the wider economy might have been minimal. However, these “innovations” in “flexible” loans products spread beyond just affordable lending into the entire U.S. mortgage market. The lure of reduced underwriting standards held true not just for borrowers of modest income but for those at all income levels. Although the erosion of mortgage underwriting standards began in Washington within itiatives like the CRA as a way to reduce “barriers to homeownership,” this trend inevitably spread to the wider mortgage market. One observer noted:

Bank regulators, who were in charge of enforcing CRA standards, could hardly disapprove of similar loans made to better qualified borrowers. This is exactly what occurred.

Borrowers – regardless of income level – took advantage of the erosion of underwriting standards that started with government affordable housing policy. As one study observed,“[o]ver the past decade, most, if not all, the products offered to subprime borrowers have also been offered to prime borrowers.”24 For example, Alt-A and adjustable-rate mortgages became incredibly popular with borrowers – who were generally not low-income – engaging in housing speculation. As home prices continued their dizzying rise, many people decided to cash in by buying a house with an adjustable rate mortgage featuring a low introductory teaser rate set to increase after a few years.These borrowers, confident in the oft-cited assertion that U.S. home values had never before fallen in the aggregate, planned to sell or refinance their investment before the mortgage rate adjusted upward, pocketing the difference between the initial purchase price and the subsequent appreciation in value. However, buyers failed to grasp the effect of a government policy that had quietly eroded the prudential limits on mortgage leverage, creating a dangerous speculative bubble.

As the size of down payments for mortgages fell, so too did borrowers’ equity stake inthe homes they purchased. This had two important effects. First, it eliminated the borrower’s “skin in the game,” increasing the likelihood that he or she would walk away from the mortgage if times got tough. It also increased the borrower’s leverage (debt) as measured by the Loan-to-Value ratio.25 This leverage allows borrowers to purchase more expensive houses than they would otherwise be able to afford at a given level of income. It was this process of steadily increasing leverage that drove the complete decoupling of home prices from Americans’ income and fed the growth of the housing bubble. As the average down payment shrank and leverage correspondingly increased, the amount of mortgage debt relative to borrowers’ income increased. This increasing leverage in turn eroded the power of supply and demand to restrain irrational price increases. In a normal housing market, free of government intervention, an increase in home prices would havebeen restrained when the marginal, or next, home seller tried to charge a price too highfor prospective borrowers to afford. This home seller would have been forced to cut his or her unreasonable price.

Once government-sponsored efforts to decrease down payments spread to the wider market, home prices became increasingly untethered from any kind of demand limited by borrowers’ ability to pay. Instead, borrowers could just make smaller down payments and take on higher debt, allowing home prices to continue their unrestrained rise.

Government actions distorted the housing market, yet advocates of affordable housing policies, such as Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA), have asserted that those who criticize these policies seek to place blame for the financial crisis solely on borrowers of modest means.27 This misses the mark entirely. In fact, responsibility for the erosion of mortgage lending standards, which began with government affordable housing policy, rests squarely on the policy makers who advocated these ill-conceived policies in the first place. Borrowers quite naturally responded to the incentives they were given, irrespective of their socioeconomic status, and risky lending spread to the wider mortgage market.

I think those last several paragraphs give a really good explanation of how the housing bubble was created. If you are looking for the name of a politician to really dislike, Barney Frank should be at the top of your list. Unless you really follow politics, you probably have never heard of him, but I can't think of any American politician who I fundemantally disagree with more than that man. He could very well be despicable. And this is coming from someone who has Boxer and Feinstein as my state senators.

Government does has its place in the economy, but these two articles highlight the inherent problems it creates for its citizens when it begins to overstep its boundaries.

Wednesday Night Soccer

One of the best parts about being home is getting to play Wednesday night soccer. Until about a week ago I had forgotten just how much I used to look forward to it. It's kind of one of those things that you know in your mind, and your memory is clear about how much you enjoy it, but you just really don't fully remember until you become immersed again in the activity and become fully wrapped up in it.

I don't know what the equivalent is for women, but hopefully there is something that they can enjoy together as much as guys enjoy playing sports together. Last night I totally got nailed in the face with an elbow, and granted, some guys let that set them off, but when it happened to me, I just shrugged it off, knew that I was in his space, and didn't even let my bleeding lip or watering eyes break my gait. What other activities can you have such a blatant display of aggression, and suffer no ill effects from?

It's awesome because of all the obvious exercise benefits, but what I love about soccer as opposed to running or any other typical work out is that I can get completely lost in the game. It doesn't matter what else is going on in my life - all that matters is what's happening in the moment and what I have to do to win.

We play indoors, in a carpeted room in the stake center. It's 4 v 4, with two little wastebins setup and the first team to two goals wins and the losing team has to sit. We have a minimum of 10 guys, with as many as 25 or so in the summer months. Sometimes the wait with that many people becomes excruciating so competitive fires become even more fierce as the incentive to win becomes heightened.

I love watching my best friend play. He's just an incredibly creative player. He regularly makes plays happen that guys are lucky to have once or twice in an evening. I love that all my close guy friends play. There is some talking that goes on in the beginning, and then when you're on the stage, but for the most part you become lost in the flow of the game, even when you're not playing. You're always just itching to get back on. At least I am, anyway. I love that I can keep up with the high school kids that sometimes come because it means that I am in pretty good shape, and that I haven't lost much quickness. It's unbelievable how much quickness you lose from late teens to late twenties. I love that while I'm not always the most skilled player out there, I'm always one of the hardest working. I don't put my head down when I miss a pass, and I don't pout about fouls. I love being tough, and not asking for play to stop if I get in the face with an elbow, for instance. I don't know how so many soccer players are okay with being so delicate. I understand it's to get calls a lot of times, but there's a lot to be said for being intimidating, too. Toughness=manly, and manly=badass, a lot of times. Know what I mean? And it's nice to think sometimes, I'm a bad man.

I think all guys need that outlet. For some it's playing videogames together, and for others it's playing sports. I hope girls have that too. It's totally what I plan my week around. I just love it to death. Love the camarederie, the competition, all of it.

Saturday In The Park, I Think It Was The Fourth Of July

This year's Summer Christmas was not the best ever, but it was still pretty good, I must say. I don't know if anything will ever rival this 4th of July from two years ago, but that will always be one of my favorite stories. I'm a little saddened by the fact that after two years we have already forgotten to do the drunk-run reenactment.

We visited Newport again this year, which was nice for the most part. The weather was very compliant, and even with our smaller than usual group, we still had a good time. Although we might have to change venues next year because it's getting just a little too crazy down in those upper streets of Newport. It has probably become a little too adult-focused down there for all of the budding families we have in tow now.

The best part had to be the Angels game that night. They started playing that Chicago song, of which the title of this post pays tribute, and I just felt so content. I wonder if anyone else noticed that song playing and thought how perfectly appropriate it was. Sadly, it was my first game of the year. I know. Crazy, right? Especially considering that I was able to go to opening day the last two years in a row. The Angels went down early, but blew up in the later innings which was nicely punctuated by Vlad hitting a home run in the 8th to seal it.

Maybe even better than the Angels game itself is the addition of this little guy to this year's festivities:
For some more Mason pics on this day, visit this link. No doubt that the best part of being home is the wealth of chitlins around here. I think I'm starting to develop my baby-soothing technique. It's impossible to not become attached to that little guy. Last night he started crying, and I had never seen the pouty lower lip and it just melted me.

Anyway, the fireworks display was great. The day ended very nicely. I love this holiday and I love this country. What a blessing it is to be able to call myself an American. Hope you all enjoyed it.

Breathing

Only just last Thursday have I begun to start running again. I wasn't really nervous about my hamstring when I was playing soccer the night before because the muscle groups are in use are totally different. However, I was anxious about how the leg would hold up just going on a normal run. I was pleasantly surprised at how easy it was to get right back into a regular pace with running. I worried as I pushed the speed and distance back to almost normal levels. I just kept waiting for the twitch that would signal that I would have to take more time off and not even worry about trying to train for the Long Beach Marathon in October. But I was able to do it without much trouble. The most pleasing part was realizing that my breathing was not affected by the layoff.

I have been thinking a lot about breathing recently. In a lecture that I heard earlier in the year, one of my professors was talking about how there is a certain amount of satisfaction and wellness that is derived from simply taking a deep breath (I guess other than the fact that breathing promotes living).

In the last year or so I have been wanting to take up both swimming and yoga, albeit for mostly different purposes, but one main draw is how each of them would help me better be able to control my breathing. I was talking to someone recently about how one of the hardest parts about swimming for me is learning how to breathe correctly. He mentioned that it eventually gets to a point where it becomes automatic, much like it is when you are completely at rest.

The act of breathing is interesting in the fact that it can be either something that is consciously monitored, as it is when you start out swimming or running, or it can be entirely subconscious and automatic. I want yoga because of the soft muscle tissue work that it provides that would offset the running and weightlifting I do, but also primarily for the meditation, breathing, and relaxation techniques that it provides.

With people that I know that deal with anxiety issues, the most common complaint about when the anxiety surfaces is how it becomes such a struggle to breathe. In a somewhat similar vein, I was watching the Wimbledon final this morning and while trying to compose himself, I could actually see Andy Roddick collect himself by taking deep breaths before each point, especially each serve. Learning how to control breathing in these examples helps these people regulate themselves in order to function properly.

I think breathing can be equated to righteous living. As breathing itself delivers oxygen that is delivered by the circulatory system to fuel the brain, organs, and muscles, righteous living provides the condition whereby we can experience peace, joy, and contentment. Sometimes breathing is automatic where it requires no thought and no conscious effort. Other times, it demands every bit of concentration and effort that we have available to us. In each case, breathing allows for harmony to prevail within the organism.

Occasionally, we stumble along - we take many missteps or the same ones over and over. Regaining our footing then becomes entirely a matter of stepping outside of ourselves and taking a deep breath that will lead to returning it to an automatic act.

Rubber Rooms

A few months ago This American Life did a feature on the practice of using Rubber Rooms for New York public school teachers. You can find the episode here. The story on the radio show does not go into detail about why they have the rubber rooms in the first place, just what the experience is like once the teachers get in there. And that story is a quite interesting one. I actually remember that I was doing my nine mile run the day I was listening to this story and screaming out in my head that the reason why they exist in the first place is because of the power of the teacher's union.

I guess I should explain what the rubber room is - here is a recent story from the Associated Press about it, with this excerpt:

Hundreds of New York City public school teachers accused of offenses ranging from insubordination to sexual misconduct are being paid their full salaries to sit around all day playing Scrabble, surfing the Internet or just staring at the wall, if that's what they want to do.

Because their union contract makes it extremely difficult to fire them, the teachers have been banished by the school system to its "rubber rooms" — off-campus office space where they wait months, even years, for their disciplinary hearings.

Here is some additional explanation about why they get sent there:

Because the teachers collect their full salaries of $70,000 or more, the city Department of Education estimates the practice costs the taxpayers $65 million a year. The department blames union rules.

"It is extremely difficult to fire a tenured teacher because of the protections afforded to them in their contract," spokeswoman Ann Forte said.

City officials said that they make teachers report to a rubber room instead of sending they home because the union contract requires that they be allowed to continue in their jobs in some fashion while their cases are being heard. The contract does not permit them to be given other work.

My guy Jay Nordlinger brought up this story in his most recent Impromptu's column. He mentioned this:

Okay, want to take a walk down Memory Lane. When I was growing up, teachers were exalted as maybe the best and most important members of society. And many were! Their union, in turn, was held up as a noble organization. Whenever there was any dispute between the teachers and administration, the teachers were the good guys, wearing the white hats, and the administrators were the bad guys, wearing the black. Opposing teachers was akin to opposing saints.

As I got older, however, I started to change my mind: because it seemed to me that the union was making unreasonable demands, and that the teachers, sometimes, were less interested in education than in their own perks and unfirability. Which is understandable, of course. My point is, as I matured, I began to see more gray, and less black and white. This happened in my late teens, I would say.

I thought of this when reading (the story I just linked and took an excerpt from) from two days ago. The headline is “700 NYC teachers are paid to do nothing.”

Ladies and gentlemen, I don’t care whether you’re liberal or conservative, libertarian or Rastafarian: That’s a lousy way to run a railroad — a lousy way to run a school system — don’t you think?

So is anyone else seeing a problem with labor unions? The balance of power has tilted too much in favor of the unions. The UAW is wrecking the US auto industry and teachers unions all over the country seem to do little to help improve education. There is a lot of gray in these matters, but the black and white seems to indicate that if there's any kind of take home message, there should be at least some recognition as to the problem with power distribution between unions and administrators.

I was just realizing, that if I were a real thinker, I would now present my own solution to the problem here. My problem, however, is that I'm a novice when it comes to a lot of these political things, even though I'm still reading about stuff all the time, and have been following all of this for the last several years. How do you tackle the problem of unions v. government/business? I have gut reactions to some of these things, which I'd like to think are well informed, but I'm not always right, or well thought out enough. I'm working on it though. Let me get back to you.

And adieu.

Okay USA!

Over the past week and a half eight soccer teams have been playing in the Confederations Cup, which is a tournament gathering of previous regional tournament winners. We drew an especially difficult group with Brazil, Italy, and Egypt. Previous to this tournament the US team had been dismantled by Costa Rica.

Our first two games against Italy and Brazil saw us lose both games by a combined 6-1 margin, which is pretty big for soccer. I had meant to try and catch the final game on Sunday against Egypt even though there was almost no chance of our being able to advance past the pool round in the tournament. There was a tiny chance that we could advance even with two losses: Italy had to lose by a margin of three goals and the US had to win by the same margin. It seemed so unlikely because not only had we been playing so poorly, but how is the previous World Cup winner going to lose 3-0?

Later that day while fumbling around in my kitchen looking for food, I thought of the game that I had missed and lamented to myself that it seems like US soccer never gets the big upset. They almost never get the signature victory, and it seemed like the national team had really taken some major steps backwards in the past year or so.

And then I found out that the improbable had occurred. Italy lost 3-0, US won 3-0 over Egypt and they were going to advance to the semi-final of the Confederations Cup. The semi-final game was this afternoon against FIFA ranked #1 team Spain, who had a 35 game unbeaten streak dating back to November of 2006 and a 15 game winning streak currently rolling. Last summer they won the Euro Cup to qualify for this tournament.

And then again, the improbable occurred. While I was supposed to be working on my thesis, I couldn't tear my eyes away from the game because the US actually was staying in contention throughout. I couldn't believe it. They weren't perfect, but they were really solid. Spain never really had a solid shot on goal, though there were some pretty good opportunities, but the US defenders and keeper Tim Howard were Johnny on the Spot every time.

Jozy Altidore scored in the 24th minute, completely out-muscling the Spanish defender to get free in the 18 yd box. Later in the game, hometown hero Benny Feilhaber of Irvine, Ca created the opportunity that would lead to Clint Dempsey's game-clinching goal in the 74th minute. Maybe the Spaniards were just letting counterattacks go because they were desperate for another girl, but the US team looked really different out there with Benny in the midfield than they did with Clint playing back.

Although Charlie Davies and Altidore can be explosive, they really seem pretty lazy playing up top. I wish there were a little more like Rooney and Tevez hunting down that ball. Bradly seems to control the midfield well, but he seems to be looking to hit a lot of home runs with his passes up top. It would be nice if he played the conventional ball a little more frequently. The defense was stellar. Onyewu, DeMerit, and Spector were always in the right spots throughout the whole game, although Torres totally smoked Onyewu in the second half. Landon Donovan played probably the best game I've ever seen him play. The guy was everywhere from front to back the entire game, defending attacks and creating opportunities up front. And Tim Howard made some great saves and gave up no second chance opportunities. The Bradley red card was total BS in the second half. It's weird that the US has received so many red cards during this tournament.

In any case, it was quite a huge victory for the US squad. The final is this Sunday against the winner of the Brazil-South Africa game tomorrow. You know where I'm going to be.

Sad Day

I have had this persistent cough for like two weeks. Last Wednesday I was playing soccer and I decided to just start playing, no stretching or warming up. Towards the end I ended up straining my hamstring. I didn't run or anything in the last week. Today arrives and I decide that I am well enough that I can try and pick up running so I can get moving on my marathon training. The first 2 miles are fine when out of nowhere I feel my hamstring twitch again. I walk for a few minutes before trying it again. It doesn't strain again, but I can tell that is is really tender. I walk home. I have never had to bail out on a run like that. I still have 16 weeks until marathon day, but I'm getting anxious to start putting on the miles. More than anything, I just want to be able to run just for the sake of being able to run. Instead I'm left feeling like this picture.

...well not quite, but I'm still disappointed.