Here Comes Michigan

Some more items on the presidential election. Is this still interesting to everyone? It only makes sense that there would be such intense scrutiny on what is the most important job on the entire planet. If you think about it in terms of an application process, with the American people serving as the board to arrive at a decision to decide on who the next CEO/President of the United States will be, then it's really kind of a cool process.

Anyone have any links that clearly explains how each party's nominees will eventually be decided? From what I understand, the nomination process for each party consists of securing a majority of the delegates that go to the national convention and cast their ballots for a particular nominee. I think on the Republican side it's around 1200-1300, and the Democrats have around double that. So when you look at the states and who comes out the "winner," it's a little misleading because it depends on the state and how they go about alotting their delegates to each candidate. Some states are winner-take-all states where if a certain candidate "wins" the state, then they get all of that state's delegates. The first couple of states that have already had caucuses and primaries so far - Iowa, New Hampshire, Wyoming - aren't winner take all states. For that reason, each of the candidates have won over a certain amount of delegates. The number of delegates that a state has depends on population and adherence to certain rules (I'm still not entirely clear on how that works out). Most of the states that have primaries on Super Tuesday, February 5th, are winner-take-all states. I give all of that as a background for this story on how Romney can win the nomination without having to "win" every state. That one is especially interesting.

Last night there was another debate. This is Hewitt's take on it. I think this story by the New York Times gives a pretty impartial look at the debate, so I thought that was pretty helpful. This is a National Review guy, Jim Geraghty. And then this comes from Rich Lowry, who I think gives some good insight, always. This comes from Jonathan Martin at Politico.com. I like that one least because it feels like he is decidedly pro-anyone not named Mitt Romney so it feels like in his writing, Romney will always come out behind. And this last one comes from Dean Barnett, who writes for the Weekly Standard, and is usually the guest host when Hugh isn't doing his own show.

You know, to be honest, I'm not feeling very good about Romney's chances to succeed in this race. There is still a chance, no doubt, but it seems like there have to be a lot of ifs that have to go in his favor in order for him to win the nomination. If he doesn't get Michigan this Tuesday, then I just really do not think there is a way for him to bounce back from that. He will have lost three big battles in a row that he tried to make a hard stand on and it feels like at this point, he's already reeling. And what's worse is that I feel like Michigan is already leaning in McCain's favor. Right now it's a tight race between Romney, McCain, and Huckabee for that state. However, the Michigan primaries allow for Independents and Democrats to vote for a Republican candidate. That would not bode well for Romney one bit. Here is a look at the polls for Michigan. What Romney does have going for him in Michigan is a couple of newspaper endorsements, his father being the governor there back in the '60s, and conservative outlets harping on McCain's and Huckabee's out of the conservative mainstream views. That and the fact that after his loss in New Hampshire, Romney secured $5 million in campaign funds. That's amazing considering that Huckabee got only got a couple hundred thousand after Iowa, and McCain about the same after New Hampshire. That's also another point in favor of Romney - McCain has very little money left to campaign, which is why the matching funds debate is so big right now. So...it's still anybody's guess how this one turns out. Tuesday, however, should provide a lot of (or maybe just more) clarity.

Let's also welcome the recently engaged Taylor Rice to the blogosphere. He'll be permalinked on the left.