Thursday, October 25, 2012

Elections and such

Someone has been emailing me about a broken link from a post that is 5 years old. I couldn't believe it. Then I really couldn't believe it when she followed up 3 more times in the last month or so. That forced me to go back through my blog and look for it, but I couldn't believe how much content I used to put out. I don't know if y'all realized this, but I used to post. A lot. I used to write a lot, and then link and excerpt even more.

I don't know that I'll ever get back to that level of output, but here is some more for you anyway...

Romney is still doing really well. This article by Victor Davis Hanson points out just how much the debates turned the tide for Romney. His strategy in that third debate really was pretty straightforward - he didn't need a knockout, by any means. All he needed was to basically hold the line, look Presidential, and not mess it up. He could've done more, that's for sure, but he didn't need to, and he pulled it off.

This one is by Michael Barone, who always has a really good grip on how to read these things. From the article:

The list of target states has certainly not been fixed. Barack Obama's campaign spent huge sums on anti-Romney ads to create a firewall in three states that the president won narrowly in 2008 -- Florida, Ohio and Virginia. But post-debate polling shows Romney ahead in Florida and tied in Virginia.

National Journal's Major Garrett reported last week that Obama strategist David Plouffe omitted Florida and Virginia in a list of key states but mentioned Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Obama carried the latter three by 10, 10 and 12 points in 2008.

So much for the firewall. In addition, polling shows Romney ahead in Colorado, which Obama carried by 9 points last time, and the race closing in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, which Obama carried by 14, 10 and 16 points.

And then there was his massive rally in Colorado two nights ago.

In the all-too-important swing state of Ohio, Romney is really starting to close. This post in the Corner at NRO shows that Romney is looking like he's setting up for a big finish in Ohio:

The race for Ohio is slowly tightening, but Mitt Romney does not hold a lead in a single poll in the current Real Clear Politics average (he is tied in two). Two polls from Time and CBS/Quinnipiac have grabbed headlines by showing Obama a five-point lead in each. Romney is chipping away at Obama’s poll lead, but the Democratic advantage in party-ID has increased across these polls. When looking at the polls in Ohio, it is becoming entirely possible that Mitt Romney should be able to win Ohio without ever showing a consistent lead in the polls, or any lead at all.

Lastly, a reason a lot of libs are still feeling optimistic is that they keep saying, well, it's the electoral math. Romney may lead nationally, but the math for getting to the magic 270 electoral count just isn't there, but again, that's misleading. Rasmussen polls, among the most reliable out there, is showing that of the 11 key swing states that went for Obama in 2008, Romney now leads across the board 50%-46% . Formerly, Obama's team was thinking that they had a firewall in Florida, Virgina, and New Hampshire, but now Romney is either tied or out ahead on those. He is also up in Colorado, North Carolina, and closing in on the rest.

So what's the big thing now besides voting? Pray for good weather. If you want a Romney win, pray for good weather for two Tuesdays from now. Turnout will favor the GOP because of their enthusiasm, and nothing suppresses turnout like unfavorable weather. Kind of like today in Utah.

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