Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Finally...Mitt Wins One In Michigan

It's interesting how much emphasis is placed on declaring a "winner" in these states where it isn't winner take all. Then it becomes more like a cumulative point total, kind of like how the NASCAR end of the season winner wins at the end of the season. As long as you have strong showings in all of the races, you can easily end up winning the overall title. For example, although Mitt won last night he actually only got three more delegates than McCain did. That isn't a big deal considering that the eventual nominee needs to rack up more than 1200 delegates to obtain the nomination. I guess it's mostly for the media and for people who don't really understand how the process really works.

Some reading:
  • This is Hugh's take on what the win last night means for the GOP race.
  • This is also from Hugh's site, but it comes from his blog contributor, Patrick Ruffini. What I like about this one is that he breaks down the demographics of the vote.
  • This is John O'Sullivan from NRO talking about the overall race.
  • Byron York, also from NRO, talking about Romney's campaign strategy and whether or not it can work anywhere that's not Michigan.
  • And finally the guys over at Powerline. I thought this was some really good analysis about what last night meant for Mitt. I almost prefer to hear the impartial perspective that they have over Hewitt's heavily pro-Romney points sometimes. If I'm looking for hope, I read Hugh. If I'm trying to think realistically, I read these guys.

There are no significant polls yet for South Carolina or Florida. I say that only because nothing will reflect what went on last night, but it's doubtful that this will give him much of a bounce because that has generally been the case this campaign year. As far as I know, it sounds like Mitt will concede in South Carolina and take aim at Florida, where it's looking pretty open.

Did anyone see the post-primary speeches? I'm surprised no one has really written anything about this yet, but Huckabee was the first to take the stage to concede defeat. About 5 minutes in and before he could finish, McCain took the podium. Less than a minute had passed when Romney began his victory speech. I wonder how that will play out among the candidates. That had to have set off McCain because that guy has cussed out other people for less.

On the other side of the race, I think Hillary's margin for victory was only about 15-20%. She got about 60% of the vote, but when your next biggest competitor is "uncommitted," that can't be very encouraging. That means that about 40% of Democratic voters went out in freezing temperatures to pull a lever for a vote that essentially means I'd rather not vote. Isn't that funny? It'll be interesting to see what impact that has, if any. That's all people.

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